Australia’s strong population growth has been one of the major fundamentals underpinning our property markets.
But some are suggesting we’re growing to fast — our cities are becoming less liveable and our infrastructure can’t cope.
So what’s ahead for Australia’s population growth?
Recently QBE released its Australian Property Market Outlook — 2018–2021 and looked at this question as well as the future supply and demand equation.
And they drew some intersting conclusions.
Here’s what the forecast:
Net overseas migration has been the predominant driver of national population growth, accounting for 60% of total population growth over the past three years.
The drivers of this growth have been strong employment growth (attracting people for employment) and increased numbers of overseas students.
Net overseas migration inflows have moved in line with economic conditions, peaking at 300,000 in 2008/09 and bottoming out at 184,000 in 2014/15.
Net overseas migration subsequently recovered to 262,500 in 2016/17, with growth in overseas students being the main contributor.
Data for the six months to December 2017 suggests net overseas migration has weakened in 2017/18 in response to changed Federal Government conditions on working visas.
As a result, net overseas migration is expected to end at around 230,000 persons in 2017/18.
Despite being a 12% fall on a year earlier, this remains well above the long-term average.